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Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production
Dr. Dillip Kumar Swain, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India
Dr. Lal Samarakoon, Geoinformatics Center, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
Mr. Kavinda Gunasekera, Geoinformatics Center, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
This session aims to train the students on use of crop models for (1) simulation of rice yield under varying production management scenarios, (2) analysis the future climate change impacts on rice production and (3) evaluation of agro-adaptation options to mitigate the climate change impact on rice production through case study based on GIS.
Farming is risky in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the developing world, because of high variability of climate. The impact of climate change on agricultural production varies from region to region, for example, this may bring benefit to crop production in higher latitudes (> 550 N), while the places particularly tropical and sub-tropical countries (developing world) will be adversely affected. If the climate change effects dominate, world crop yields are likely to be decreased significantly. Rice, the second most important food crop after wheat in world, is grown on about 145 million hectares with an annual production of 518 million tones, which is mostly concentrated in Asia.
As crop production system is more complex, because of involving environment, fertilizer, pest control, genotype, cultural practices, etc; conducting trials that take all these factors into account becomes increasingly complex and expensive too. A suitably validated crop simulation model could be used to test many such combinations in a brief time at limited expense and such simulations can adequately describe relative trends in yields caused by environmental variation. In this training programme, we will deliver the application of crop modeling and simulation in agricultural research and discuss in detail about the rice model ‘CERES-Rice’ of DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer). We will train the students on use of the crop model in forecasting rice yield for climate change scenarios. Also agro-adaptations (change in plating time, nutrient management, varieties, etc) will be evaluated through simulation analysis for better adaptations to climate change on regional basis.
GIS is a tool that facilitates the use of various spatial data including physical, social and economical data to study a given problem in a comprehensive manner. Therefore, GIS can be considered as a tool that provide invaluable support in handling data and information in studying a very complex and interdisciplinary problem like climate change and related adaptation issues and strategies. GIS session under the Impact on Rice Production provides the basic knowledge of GIS and the necessary skill through hands-on session to address impact of climate change on rice cultivation. The case study was prepared using data over an agricultural area in Thailand to identify possible adaptation strategies to cope with economic impact on rice cultivation due to climate variations.
Lecture 1: Introduction to Crop Models
- Introduction on rice production system and climate change in agriculture
- Rationale of crop simulation models
- Terminologies in crop models
- Simulation approach
- Concepts in developing crop system model
- Crop Simulation models of DSSAT
- CERES-Rice of DSSAT
Lecture 2: Setting up the Crop Model (CERES-Rice of DSSAT)
- File system of the model
- Input data requirements
- Data management tools
- Data analysis tools
- Model calibration and validation
- Uncertainty and risk analysis
Exercise: Rice yield simulation (a Case Study of Thailand)
- Data inputs (weather, soil and crop data)
- Creation of experimental file
- Model calibration and validation
- Rice yield simulation for climate change scenarios and evaluation of agroadaptations
GIS Exercise: Adaptation to Climate Change (a Case Study of Thailand)
- Data input to GIS system (soil, land cover, rainfall)
- Data interpolation
- Work with raster and vector data
- Use of GIS for estimate yield for different climate scenarios
- Estimate possible production and cost/benefit based on the agro-adaptation techniques using GIS
On completion of this session, the student should be able to:
- Gain knowledge on use of crop simulation models in agriculture
- Analyze and understand the climate change impacts on rice production using crop simulation models
- Evaluate location specific adaptation technologies to minimize the adverse effect of climate change on rice production.
- Use of GIS tool to identify climate related impact on rice cultivation in spatial terms
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